The market is influenced not only by energy prices, but also by political factors

European prices reached €88 per tonne in September–October.

According to ICE data, at the close of trading on 14 September, CO₂ emission allowance futures (EUA, December contract) were trading at €87.99/t, marking the highest price of the month, and on 12 October they surged to their highest level since the end of January this year — €88.3/t.

Overall, the average price for September was €85.6 per tonne.

As noted by Carbon Pulse, the price rise on 12 October was driven by active buying against the backdrop of discussions amongst environment ministers in Brussels regarding the proposed reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Additional factors contributing to the rise were the situation in the gas market and optimism surrounding the EU–UK summit. Regarding the latter, the parties intend to hold the summit on 20 November, with the agenda focusing on finalising agreements on the integration of carbon markets. However, on the same day, prices subsequently fell slightly.

The European Council meeting on 15–16 October will be a key event for the carbon market. In particular, Italy and the Czech Republic will put forward a joint initiative to relax EU environmental standards in order to reduce the cost of energy and protect businesses. Under current rules, between September 2026 and August 2027, 190 million emission allowances will be withdrawn from the bloc’s carbon market and transferred to the MSR (Market Stability Reserve). The two countries are putting forward a proposal to suspend this transfer.

At present, according to market participants, the outcome of these negotiations is a significant factor that could lead to a softening of the EUA market. During the negotiations, the parties are expected to agree on a common position ahead of the upcoming trilogue with the European Parliament and the European Commission. The trilogue is due to begin in January next year.

It should be noted that throughout August, EUAs traded within a narrow range of €82–84/t, with the average price for the month standing at €82.3/t. Market sentiment fluctuated, influenced in particular by developments in the energy markets (where an inverse correlation with gas prices was generally observed), trading activity and political signals regarding the situation in the Middle East.